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How lead exposure relates to temporal changes in IQ, violent crime, and unwed pregnancy

Rick Nevin’s 2000 paper comparing gasoline lead with later trends in crime.

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Dates
2000
The debate

What it found

long-term trends in population exposure to gasoline lead were found to be remarkably consistent with subsequent changes in violent crime and unwed pregnancy.1

Who disputes it

  • The lead-crime hypothesis: a meta-analysis 2022

    Lead increases crime, but does not explain the majority of the fall in crime observed in some countries in the 20th century.2

    Its abstract speaks of the literature and of the share of the fall in crime lead explains; it does not name this paper.

Each side is quoted in its own words. Whether a finding holds is not decided here.

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Timeline 2 dates
  1. 2000 How lead exposure relates to temporal changes in IQ, violent crime, and unwed pregnancy
  2. 2022 The lead-crime hypothesis: a meta-analysis disputes a finding of How lead exposure relates to temporal changes in IQ, violent crime, and unwed pregnancy According to The lead-crime hypothesis: a meta-analysis
Proof 2 sources
  1. How lead exposure relates to temporal changes in IQ, violent crime, and unwed pregnancy (Environ Res 83:1-22), Environmental Research (abstract, PubMed), May 2000. Scholarship & press
    long-term trends in population exposure to gasoline lead were found to be remarkably consistent with subsequent changes in violent crime and unwed pregnancy.
  2. The lead-crime hypothesis: a meta-analysis (Regional Science and Urban Economics 97:103826), University of Glasgow (Enlighten), Elsevier, 21 Aug 2022. Scholarship & press
    Lead increases crime, but does not explain the majority of the fall in crime observed in some countries in the 20th century.
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