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Testing Theories of American Politics

Study by Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page, published in Perspectives on Politics in 2014; it compares what groups of Americans wanted, from surveys, with later policy.

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Dates
Sep 2014
The debate

What it found

economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.1

Who disputes it

  • Omar Bashir 2015

    I show that the result on which the original study is based is too likely to have been produced by chance because the income-based independent variables are highly correlated.2

  • Peter Enns 2015

    I offer a cautionary note regarding this conclusion.34

Each side is quoted in its own words. Whether a finding holds is not decided here.

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finding disputed by

author

Timeline 4 dates
  1. Sep 2014 Testing Theories of American Politics
  2. Sep 2014 Martin Gilens authored Testing Theories of American Politics
  3. 2015 Omar Bashir disputes a finding of Testing Theories of American Politics According to Omar Bashir
  4. 2015 Peter Enns disputes a finding of Testing Theories of American Politics According to Peter Enns
Proof 4 sources
  1. Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens, Perspectives on Politics (Cambridge University Press), Sep 2014. Scholarship & press
    economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence.
    Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page
  2. Testing inferences about American politics: A review of the “oligarchy” result, Research & Politics (SAGE), Oct 2015. Scholarship & press
    I show that the result on which the original study is based is too likely to have been produced by chance because the income-based independent variables are highly correlated.
    the preferences of economic elites (90th income percentile)
    average Americans have received their preferred policy outcome roughly as often as elites have when the two groups have disagreed with each other
  3. Relative Policy Support and Coincidental Representation, Perspectives on Politics (Cambridge University Press), Dec 2015. Scholarship & press
    I offer a cautionary note regarding this conclusion.
  4. Reconsidering the Middle: A Reply to Martin Gilens, Perspectives on Politics (Cambridge University Press), Dec 2015. Scholarship & press
    median-income respondents see their desired outcome 47 percent of the time (compared to 53 percent for the affluent)
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